Musk said 10 billion miles would crack ‘safe unsupervised’ FSD. Tesla just got there

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Tesla’s FSD fleet has now driven over 10 billion supervised miles.

Customer cars remain Level 2 systems requiring full driver attention.

Liability questions still sit between owners and any unsupervised rollout.

While Tesla doesn’t have a fleet of fully autonomous robotaxis to rival Waymo’s, it does have the advantage of more than a million vehicles equipped with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, giving it a massive trove of real-world data to train and refine its autonomous tech. But in news that will surprise absolutely no one, the company still hasn’t delivered true autonomy, despite Elon Musk’s repeated claims that it’s right around the corner.

Earlier this week, Tesla updated its FSD safety page, revealing that vehicles equipped with the advanced system have logged more than 10.03 billion miles worldwide. That’s a truly staggering number, of which more than 3.7 billion miles have been covered in cities.

The fleet is currently piling up roughly 29 million miles per day with FSD engaged. Tesla CEO Elon Musk claimed on X back in January that “roughly 10 billion miles of training data is needed to achieve safe unsupervised self-driving.” Tesla has now blown past that threshold, and yet an unsupervised version of FSD still doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to reality.

Exactly when the system will be deemed safe enough for drivers to doze off behind the wheel remains an open question. As of early January, Tesla’s FSD fleet had covered a touch over 7 billion miles, so things are ramping up quickly. With more testing, Tesla will have more data to analyze, which should help it on its path towards full autonomy. However, it’ll probably be a long time before it’s ready to roll out such a system.

The Verge reports that according to Tesla’s own figures, vehicles running Full Self-Driving cover an average of 5.5 million miles between major collisions, a number the company stacks against the roughly 660,000-mile average it cites for U.S. drivers as a whole.

There’s more to this data than meets the eye, however. The figure doesn’t account for the fact that crashes are far more common on city streets than on highways, and highways are where FSD racks up most of its miles.

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